Didn't we know it all along? Didn't we sense it coming? Didn't we feel it somewhere in the back of our minds that we were doing something immoral, unethical, illegal, or just plain stupid? Of course not. We were all caught by surprise weren't we? And to think that we are to blame? Nonsense. It was all the fault of someone else wasn't it? You know, someone in that other political party or someone whom we already have a grudge against. Yes, that's it, it was the greedy rich, or the crafty, communist Chinese manipulating their currency, or decades of misguided Republican deregulation, or the irresponsible Federal Reserve whose chairman was following a flawed ideology, or those corrupt Democrats who got massive kickbacks from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in return for favorable legislation, or it was those dirty illegal aliens, or those shady people who hire illegal aliens, or it was those activist judges who are always legislating from the bench, or those corrupt judges who are on the take from big business, or the predatory lenders who sold credit as if it were crack, or the people who took out loans that they knew that they couldn't pay back, or it was the fault of one or more of any number of at least partly responsible parties, or should we say irresponsible parties, that have brought us to where we are today, with the exception of course being that we had nothing to do with it. And let's not forget our mantra. Let us all open up our windows and scream it out to the world: "If everyone had listened to me (or whatever pundit, idol, deity, or other bastion of authority you happen to follow) then none of this would have ever happened!"

STFU! For the love of Ishtar, STFU everyone!

But alas, there will be no S'ing the FU. And as we continue to slide into oblivion the chorus of the self-righteous will only grow louder. Let us not forget that magical side effect of blaming someone else in that it makes us feel more secure and less guilty about our own failings. Yes, even yours truly succumbed to this annoying practice. When I received feedback on my advice/rant titled "The Hill" in the last newsletter and received a lot of warm congratulations I knew that I had screwed up. Sure, the essay started out as an innocent exploration of my own beliefs and practices, the kind of self examination which is necessary for one to truly understand themselves and the world, but while I tried to stick to my usual themes of ideologies and the Fireaxe theory it seems that along the way I got sidetracked into blasting away at the all too numerous hypocrites of the world. I don't think that that in itself is a bad thing, there are people who deserve the blame and who need to change their ways, but it seems that no matter how balanced I make my rants and how evenly I try to spread out the vitriol, it always seems as though everyone thinks that I am on their side and that I am talking about someone else. If that's what you are thinking then you are seriously mistaken. When I spread around the criticisms I am most definitely talking about me and about you.

I know that I came off sounding too self-righteous in that essay. I didn't mean to imply that Brian Voth is the almighty hill-climbing wonder who stands atop a mountain of amazing accomplishments and pisses down on all the lazy wastes of flesh below. And when I ended it by telling everyone to stay modest my own hypocrisy was prominently on display. I should have tempered my words and thus I will do so now. To be honest, I know all about "the hill" and how steep and difficult it is because I've put forth half-assed efforts or outright given up while climbing it more times than I care to admit, and I know all the excuses for falling short because I've heard plenty of them uttered from my own lips. Part of my reason for writing it was to give myself the kind of motivation that I need to meet the obstacles that I'm going to be facing for the rest of my life, and life is going to get a lot harder for almost everyone in the world for some time to come. I know that I've slacked off in a lot of areas, coasting along on my talents without taking the time to really develop them, and I've taken too many things for granted. I guess that what I'm trying to say is that I am not talking down to you from the top of the hill. Nor are we both standing at the top patting each other on the back and sneering at those pathetic creatures below. No, I am at the bottom of the hill, just like you, trying to summon up the motivation to face the hard road ahead and end up at the top, or at least end up somewhere high enough to satisfy my needs and desires. Understand that you don't climb the hill once in your life and that's where you end up. No, you have to climb it over and over again so get used to the idea of starting over. Now, let's plot our course and find out what we're made of.

To help in plotting that course, I'll get back to what I like to think is some clear-headed, sober analysis about the state of the world today. And rather than give my less than qualified opinion about what needs to be done to fix everything, like everyone else seems to be doing, I'll instead focus on what is likely to happen so that you and I can make better decisions about how to navigate the rough seas ahead.

If there are any questions about how ideology has polluted the world and made rational analysis nearly impossible then they are being answered by the constant game of shirk and blame that passes for discourse in political and financial matters today. Everyone is railing against someone else and making their case from a purely ideological perspective based on half-truths and misconceptions. At a time in which it is of the utmost most importance to be clear-headed, open- minded, and analytical about what is happening we have instead surrendered to the false tenets of our belief systems, clinging to solutions which worked in another time for a different set of conditions, and unwavering in our support of them. This is a sure recipe for failure. But failure in what sense? It seems inevitable that we will not choose the best path out of the mess that we are in and that we will probably end up switching courses many times, sometimes getting stymied by entrenched opposition and at others applying truly draconian measures which will end up doing more harm than good. Democracy is supposed to save us from such turmoil, idealistically dealing with crises by having a group of people who represent a diversity of interests get together and agree on a solution that works well for everyone. But if what we've seen so far is any indication of what is to come, our vaunted method of governance is going to prove woefully lacking. As a conscious, self-aware, thinking people, there is no other way to describe such an outcome other than failure.

But failure for one ideology, especially one so powerful and with so many followers as the one which is currently falling, means opportunities for all the others to acquire new adherents and gain ground. And if the turmoil grows bad enough we are sure to see a number of new ideologies or modernized versions of older ones appear. Make no mistake about it, if the old system crashes completely to the ground then almost everyone's understanding of how the universe works will be fundamentally changed forever. As unthinkable is it was only a few years ago, free-market Capitalism may be on its death bed, with only the fanatics, and others who did well under the current system, clinging to the idea that it is the best way to run an economy. The vast majority of us may entertain various alternatives, including those which are seen as utterly repulsive today. Of course, it's not going to happen overnight, if it happens at all, but as the misery drags on, minds will change.

And as the bickering, blaming, inaction, and poorly constructed legislation continues to handicap our attempts at finding solutions a lot of people are going to start thinking about dictatorship in a new light, as a necessary evil rather than a corrosive and destructive force, since a dictator would have the power to challenge and uproot our many deeply corrupted and obstinate bureaucracies and impose his solutions the way they were meant to be enacted, not some makeshift compromised versions. The old tale about how Mussolini got the trains to run on time and other myths about how efficiently Fascist governments can do things will be unearthed and spread far and wide regardless of any truth in them or the lack thereof. Of course anything is going to be better than a democracy paralyzed by partisan feuding and a financial system paralyzed by debt, but without well regulated free markets and a stable currency no economy is going to run at full speed, dictator or not. However, with free markets and laissez-faire capitalism associated with the numerous bankruptcies, foreclosures, unemployment, and who knows what all else that are in store that are going to bring widespread suffering and misery among the masses it seems likely that a fascist ideology, by another name most likely, will be presented as a middle way between Capitalism and Communism and will gain wide acceptance in many nations. The first signs of this trend have already begun as governments worldwide have increased spending and kicked off large public works projects, which is essentially the government seizing greater control over the economy and displacing private enterprise and free markets. As the economic fallout spreads, nationalizing privately owned companies, instituting price and wage controls, protecting national industries, and other measures will likely be instituted, appearing to be necessary and in many cases being things that must be done in order to stave off the obliteration of important national industries. Fascism will be in vogue to one extent or another, but what flavor of Fascism will each nation choose?

As the neo-liberal Objectivist style ideology which has dictated global economic policy for the last few decades lays dying, the F.D.R. style Keynesian model has been dusted off and put in its place, thus avoiding a full scale ideological conflict about how governments should conduct themselves in a crushing fiscal crisis. It appears that we already have a solution when faced with a depression, simply follow the recipe that the United States followed through the great depression and you too will emerge as a superpower. If only it were so simple.

As the credit bubble implodes and the massive debts that have built up are becoming unserviceable, we are seeing a wave of insolvency sweeping across the world. Individuals, corporations, governments, and almost everything in between are becoming terrible credit risks, and who can blame the banks for not lending the money that they have? Would you lend money in this economy? But the credit bubble needs more debt to feed on or else it will undergo explosive decompression, and so the governments of the world, with the U.S. leading the way in grand fashion, have jumped into the role of "borrower of last resort" to take up the slack and prop up a dysfunctional global economy. The question on everyone's mind is "will it work?", but already it seems as if there is not enough savings in the world, or enough willing lenders, to loan the U.S. and other governments the money they need. If the recent G-20 meeting is any indication, U.S. plans to spend our way out of the mess we are in have been nixed by the rest of the world. But while they can pull back in buying our debt, they can't stop us from simply printing more dollars, and not long ago the Federal Reserve announced that it will step in and buy at least some of that debt, a paltry three-hundred billion dollars worth. This is very noteworthy since it is the first step on the road to hyperinflation. We do not want to take another. While a deflationary spiral is very bad it is survivable. Hyperinflation destroys nations.

The pillar which cannot be allowed to fall is the solvency of the United States government. If the dollar goes down it will probably take the global economy with it since so many things hinge on the rating of U.S. bonds and everything is so interrelated. It will put an end to the idea that we can borrow and spend our way out of the next great depression. At that point the new Keynesians may lose their grip on the reigns of power and the battle for ideological supremacy will begin in earnest.

So, what will this battle be like? I think that a lot of us believe in the idea that at some point things will get so bad that everyone will simply wake up and see the truth, or at least see things in the same way, and come together to fix all of our problems. But as things have moved forward through this crisis I see things moving in the opposite direction and do not believe that we will ever end up any more united in purpose or belief than we are now or were at any other time. Using the Fireaxe theory I predict that there will be a further ideological balkanization, both within and between our nations only with deeper divisions than today, with those numerous ideologies all clamoring for power and using any methods at their disposal to gain acceptance. Truth will be a victim, not a champion, and fallen rivals won't so much agree with the wisdom of the victorious ideology, they will simply grudgingly go along with it, and that will be what passes for consent and unity. How long it takes and how ugly it gets between now and when we reach that "consensus" is anyone's guess but our history books can give us a good idea of what is in store.

Speaking of what's in store I believe that I am almost ready to go back into the studio and lay down the new vocal tracks for "Food for the Gods". Well, not new, but re-recorded vocals using much better equipment than I had back when I first recorded it. Even better news is that I may be even better and stronger than before, but more on that below.

A big ‘Hello’ to anyone receiving the Burning Blade for the first time. This is the Fireaxe newsletter.